Iran closes Strait of Gibraltar in Response to Potential UK retaliation against Houthi

In the complex geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, recent developments suggest a potential escalation that could have far-reaching consequences. Major General Chip Chapman, a seasoned expert in counter-terrorism, has raised a concerning possibility: Iran may seek to close the Strait of Gibraltar as a response to the UK’s potential retaliation against Houthi rebel forces for their drone and missile attacks on ships in the Red Sea.

Evaluating the Houthi-Iran Proxy Dynamics

Chapman underscores the intricate web of proxy forces at play, citing the Houthi rebels as one of Iran’s proxies. The warning centers on the Houthi’s statement regarding the closure of the Strait of Gibraltar. While skepticism about their capability exists, Chapman introduces a wildcard – the Polisario Front in Morocco, another proxy force aligned with Iran. This brings a nuanced perspective, emphasizing that the seemingly unlikely may not be implausible in the geopolitical chessboard.

Shifting Dynamics: From Defensive to Offensive Posture

Engaging in a conversation with Jacob Rees-Mogg, Chapman presents a paradigm shift in the approach to dealing with the Houthi threat. Drawing on the analogy of a baseball game, he suggests that the current defensive posture, notably Operation Prosperity Guardian, might evolve into a more offensive stance. This involves actively targeting Houthi elements, such as cruise missiles and radar sites, to enhance deterrence.

Strategic Dilemma: Single Strike or Elongated Campaign

Amidst the potential offensive actions, Chapman introduces a strategic dilemma – whether to opt for a single decisive strike or commit to an elongated campaign. This decision is not merely a military one but involves complex considerations. The backdrop of Operation Decisive Storm by Saudi Arabia and the UAE in Yemen since 2015 adds a layer of caution. Chapman notes that the operation, despite its ambitious name, neither proved decisive nor resembled a storm, underscoring the unpredictable nature of prolonged campaigns.

The Theatrics of War: Houthi Perspective on the Israeli Front

Chapman delves into the narrative presented by the Houthi rebels, portraying their actions as part of a broader theatre of war against the Israelis. This perspective, shared by Iran, envisions a unity of fronts and a metaphorical ring of fire encircling the Israelis. Understanding this narrative is crucial in comprehending the motivations behind Houthi actions and the broader implications for regional stability.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Major General Chip Chapman’s insights highlight the multifaceted nature of the potential escalation in the Middle East. The intricate dynamics of proxy forces, the shift from defensive to offensive postures, strategic dilemmas, and the theatrics of war create a complex tapestry. As geopolitical tensions unfold, it becomes imperative to navigate this landscape with a nuanced understanding, recognizing that the seemingly improbable may indeed shape the future course of events.